China to proceed with Brahmaputra mega dam despite new concerns

Fresh concerns triggered by the devastating glacial collapse along the Nepal-China border are unlikely to sway Beijing's plans to go ahead with the construction of a mega dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo, or the Brahmaputra River, in a seismically active region in Tibet near the border with India.

On July 23, 2026, a month before the August 26 flash flood and mudslides, China released its 15th Five-Year Plan for renewable energy, which called for advancing the construction of major projects, including the Yarlung Zangbo Lower Reaches Hydropower Project, as the mega dam project is referred to in China.

Underscoring the importance accorded to the plan, China’s Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing visited Nyingchi in Tibet, near the border, in April this year. "We must shoulder the principal responsibility for project‑building and build this landmark mega project of the new era,” he was quoted as saying, adding that the government would “put quality first, safety as the foundation, strictly enforce construction standards and ecological‑environmental‑protection requirements, and keep construction progress subordinate to quality and safety.”

‘Project of the century’

At a groundbreaking ceremony in July 2025, China’s second-ranked leader and Premier Li Qiang, who travelled to Nyingchi, announced the start of construction of what he called “the project of the century”. A total investment of 1.2 trillion Yuan (around ₹14 lakh crore) was announced for the construction of five power stations.

Since then, there has been little public information about the project, although Mr. Zhang’s visit this year shed some light on how the project will go forward, including the setting up of the new State-run China Yajiang Group to run the entire project, which he inspected.

China has already opened one major dam on the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo at Zangmu. A State media report earlier this month lauded the construction of the dam, saying it had “provided a solution to nearly 26 percent of electricity demand in Southwest China’s Xizang [Tibet] Autonomous Region”, the report said, detailing an elaborate “fishway” designed to help fish move between upstream and downstream sections. The report quoted design engineer Zhang Lianming as saying the fishway would likely be used for future projects.

In June this year, a “final acceptance meeting” of the Zangmu project was held, declaring that the dam, which started construction in 2010, had generated 22.2 billion kilowatt-hours of energy “equivalent to saving approximately 7.4 million tonnes of standard coal and cutting carbon dioxide emissions by around 22.2 million tonnes”.

The energy generation of the new project near the India border, where the course of the Yarlung Zangbo stunningly falls over the “great bend” and turns towards India, is expected to easily dwarf Zangmu.

While there have been no official projections, Chinese analysts project 60 GW installed capacity and 300 billion kilowatt-hours of power a year, more than three times the Three Gorges.

While the project has been described as a “run-of-the-river” dam, it will also involve the construction of a reservoir. This is likely to be located in the town of Mainling, upstream of Nyingchi, a prefecture-level city that is also home to a key airport, according to an analysis published on Wednesday by David Fishman, a Shanghai-based analyst writing on energy who looked at reports of relocations to ascertain the likely location. The water will be diverted at the top of the great bend into an approximately 40-km-long tunnel, Mr. Fishman wrote on his Substack, “Crossing the River”, as its descending force powers five 12-GW powerhouses before rejoining the river.

India’s concerns

Of concern to India is how much water is likely to be stored in the reservoir and how the tunnel will affect downstream flows, as well as possible broader ecological impacts. The lack of information has posed an obstacle in assessing the possible impact.

Later this month, India and China will hold a meeting of the Expert-Level Mechanism on Trans-border Rivers. However, the sharing of hydrological data, officials say, has not been regular and has on occasion been suspended during difficult periods in relations.

Asked about the project, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said last year that Beijing “always maintained a highly responsible attitude toward transboundary river development and has rich experience in hydropower project development”. He said the “construction of the project is beneficial for disaster prevention and mitigation throughout the entire river basin and will not have adverse effects on downstream areas”.

“China has conducted hydrological reporting, flood control, and disaster reduction cooperation with relevant downstream countries and has also engaged in necessary communication regarding the project,” he said.